Russian Aircraft Lost - Riots from a military plane after the attack by the Ukrainian army in Chernihiv Credit: Emergency Relief Agency of Ukraine/Anatolia via Getty Images
Russia will not be able to continue its losses in the air for more than two weeks after shooting down nine planes in just 24 hours, analysts said.
Russian Aircraft Lost
Moscow's security analysts say it cannot assert its air superiority because of its inability - at least to some extent - to launch a "complex" attack with air and ground forces capable of destroying the weapons systems. Ukrainian air-to-air missiles.
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Western officials were surprised that Russia could not win the war, given its air superiority in space. Without air superiority, large, slow-moving supplies on the ground could be taken out by Ukrainian airstrikes and shoulder-fired missiles, which are supplied to Ukraine from the west.
Military strategists have suggested that if Kyiv, the capital, and Kharkiv in the east continue to resist the invasion, then Vladimir Putin's bid will fail in "no more than three weeks". as long as there is no significant attempt to enter the country.
"The Ruthenians did not think of war for a long time, and they did not make provisions to continue the war at that time," Prof. Lawrence Freedman, professor of military studies at King's College London, said.
Observers rely on Russian military casualties only through sightings and authentic images, such as planes crashing or burning, posted on social media or reported by journalists.
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Actual casualties may be higher, but real-time photos and video footage show that 11 Russian planes, 11 helicopters and two drones were shot down in the attack over the past 12 days, including nine in weekend.
Russian warplanes destroyed include at least four Su-34 fighter jets, four Su-25 fighters, two Su-30 fighter jets and nine helicopters. The cost was huge, estimated at around a quarter of a billion pounds for the warplanes.
The protracted war is costing the Kremlin around £1bn a day - a disaster given the severity of the sanctions imposed on Russia.
A US intelligence official said in a briefing released overnight: "We continue to monitor contested Ukrainian airspace. Ukraine's air and missile defenses continue to be effective against and use them. Ukrainian military aircraft continue to fly and use air defense assets."
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"Both of them have lost a significant amount of air and defense missiles. We will not say much. However, we estimate that both sides possess a large part of their air defense systems and capabilities. ."
The numbers come from Stijn Mitzer, a conflict analyst who posts on Twitter under the name Oryx and a website of the same name. The website says: "This list includes vandalized vehicles and equipment for which photographic or video documentation has been obtained. Therefore, the number of vandalized items is higher than what is written here. "
Security analysts say Ukraine still has a number of warplanes operating from airfields in the west and missile sites, some handheld, that have failed to detect and destroy Russian forces.
The successful air-to-air missile force forced Russian bombers to fly high above the ground, protecting them from missile attacks, but leaving them vulnerable to attacks from air defense systems. photography - which leads to a plain valley.
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Justin Bronk, an analyst at Royal United Services, a UK-based think-tank and security think tank, said: "The loss has become sustainable very quickly. If you keep that loss for two weeks, it will be a real possibility for the Ruthenians. Nine planes were lost over the weekend. That's a lot."
He said he would shoot down Russian missiles at the start of the invasion, but that such weapons, while useful for "fixed infrastructure, strong stations and rocket launchers," are ineffective against smaller targets. - attack like warplanes.
He suggested that it can be repaired as soon as possible with the removal of warplanes from the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine and plans to deploy it in the western part of the country. At the beginning of the war, Ukraine had less than 100 aircraft, and it is not known what was left after the war.
"Ukraine is still flying," said Mr. Bronk, who added that the "continuing absence" of a major Russian-backed aviation project raised "serious questions" about its capabilities.
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He said: "While the initial failure of the VKS [Russian Air Force] to establish air superiority can be explained by early warning, adaptive capacity and sufficient planning time, the continued implementation of the project shows the main conclusion - that the VKS can lack of institutional capacity to plan, short and complex air operations on a flying scale."
He said that if Russia had been able to conduct "complex air operations," Moscow would now have air superiority in hunting Ukraine's missile launch sites.
After he failed to decapitate Ukraine's warlords, experts warned that Russia was left with the hope of a humiliating humiliation or a major attack.
In Monday's announcement, Moscow initially rejected Ukraine's demands. A Kremlin spokesman said the violence could stop "immediately" if Ukraine stopped fighting, amended its constitution to remove what would become part of Nato, accepted the loss of Crimea and recognized the territories separatists in the eastern region.
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However, security experts say that the failure of the army or a standoff - which would be seen as a military victory for Ukraine - could lead to more violence in the coming days, especially against civilians.
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