Russian Aircraft Losses - Debris from a military plane after being shot down by Ukrainian forces in Chernihiv Credit: State Emergency Service of Ukraine / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.
Russia has been unable to sustain its air strikes for more than two years after nine planes were shot down in just 24 hours, analysts said.
Russian Aircraft Losses
Defense analysts say Moscow can't build a better air defense system because it's not working - so far - to intercept "hard" ballistic missiles. eliminate Ukraine's air and surface forces.
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Western officials were surprised by Russia's inability to win a war in the skies given its massive air force. Without air superiority, large, slow-moving cannons on the ground will be removed by Ukrainian snipers and shoulder-fired missiles, sent to Ukraine from the west.
Military experts suggest that if Kyiv, the capital, and Kharkov, in the east, continue to resist the attack, then Vladimir Putin's military will decline after "less than three weeks" unless there is a strong desire to return.
"The Russians are not prepared for a long war or prepared to sustain it over time," said Prof Lawrence Freedman, retired professor of military studies at King's College London.
Russian military casualties were calculated by observers who only saw and recognized images, such as a crashed plane or a burning tank, posted on social media or collected by journalists. .
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The actual losses may be higher than the results, but the official photos and images show that 12 Russian planes, 11 helicopters and two drones have been killed since the beginning of the 12-day attack past, including nine weeks.
The damaged Russian aircraft include at least four Su-34 fighter/bombers, four Su-25 ground attack aircraft, two Su-30 fighter jets and nine attack helicopters. The cost of the business is huge, about a quarter of a million pounds for the planes alone.
Every day the war is prolonged it costs the Kremlin about 1 billion a day - a risk given that the heavy sanctions have hit Russia.
A senior official of the United States of Defense Intelligence said in a brief statement that appeared during the night: "We continue to see that the plane over Ukraine is in contact t. Ukraine's air and missile defenses continue to work and work effectively. Ukrainian forces continue to fly. planes and use anti-aircraft weapons..
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"Both sides have lost aircraft and anti-aircraft weapons. We will not talk about numbers. We will check that both sides still have air defense systems and their capabilities."
These numbers were collected by Stijn Mitzer, a controversial analyst, who posted under the Twitter handle Oryx and on the website of the same name. The website said: "This list only includes damaged vehicles and equipment with photo or video evidence available. Therefore, there are more damaged equipment than listed here. "
Defense analysts said Ukraine still has several powerful jets operating from airports in the west of the country and surface-to-air missile sites, some of which at hand, which the Russian army could not identify and destroy.
Successful air-to-air operations have forced Russian planes to fly low, protecting them from missile attacks but making them vulnerable to attacks by hand-portable anti-aircraft - take the rocket.
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Justin Bronk, a meteorologist at the Royal United Services Institute, the UK's leading defense and security think tank, said: "The loss of mass cannot happen very quickly. It is a real problem. really for the Russians. They lost nine planes over the weekend. That's a lot."
He said that the Russian rockets were sent to the airport at the beginning of the attack but that such rockets, while helping to break the "design, the difficult task and the run", is not very effective in taking down small targets such as fighter jets.
He said that the traffic can be repaired quickly and the planes can be removed from the conflict zone in the east of Ukraine and distributed to the west of the country ready for delivery go. Ukraine had less than 100 fighter jets at the beginning of the war, and it is not known what remains after the end of the conflict.
"Ukraine is still flying," said Mr Bronk who added that the "non-continuity" of large-scale air operations launched by Russia raises "serious questions" about its capabilities.
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He said: "Although the initial failure of the VKS [Russian military] to stop the use of aircraft can be explained by the lack of early warning, cooperation is possible and enough preparation time, the continuation of the process shows the most important thing - that VKS does not have the organizational capacity to prepare, to shorten and fly the plane's work phase.
He said that if Russia can do "difficult air operations", Moscow should get better weather by hunting Ukrainian territory for air bases.
After the failure of the head of the Ukrainian leadership in the early stages of the war, experts have warned that Russia is left with the prospect of a shameful defeat or Continued violence.
In a statement released on Monday, Moscow appears to have scaled back its demands on Ukraine. The Kremlin spokesman said that the violence could stop "for a long time" if Ukraine does not fight, amend its constitution to exclude future membership in NATO, accept the loss of Crimea and recognized separatist territory in the east of the country.
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But security experts say any prospect of a military defeat or coup - which could be seen as a victory for Ukraine - could mean more violence in the following days, especially against the public. joined the Russian military aircraft that appeared. For what happened in August. Fifty-two people died in these cases. Volunteers from the international intelligence community have created detailed infographics to analyze these numbers.
Some analysts predict that the number of incidents will increase due to increased training of aircrew in the Russian military. But that doesn't explain why 60% of accidents are due to driving errors and 40% to mistakes.
Fortunately, in August 2021, the Russian TV base did not try to show the increase in military aircraft crashes in Russia. They kept quiet about the crisis and made the Russians listen to negative criticism of Ukraine. The TV stations are paying attention to the preparations for the Independence Day of Ukraine. At the same time, they took the opportunity to criticize the American troops from Afghanistan.
On August 23, after the MiG-29SMT aircraft caught fire during failed maintenance, the Russian military released the video "Sky", about the Russian military in Syria on their YouTube channel. And although Russia is trying to romanticize the profession of military pilots with movies, its popularity is declining due to the increasing number of aviation accidents every year.
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In November 2018, he published information about Russian military officer Alexei Kopayev, first-class pilot and pilot of the Su-30SM. The report includes audio recordings of his conversations as well as the capture of information marked "for legal use" from his emails.
In a secret call, he said that one of the missions of the Russian Air Force in Syria is to "carry out the invisible American F-22 Raptor".
The military operation in Syria is the result of attacks by the Russian army on hospitals, schools and other public buildings. Since the beginning of the Russian occupation, thousands of people have been killed in attacks on Russian aircraft.
In 2016 he published the report "Who bombed civilians in Syria - Profiles of 116 Russian AF officers". This book has been translated into 13 languages, including Arabic, and has received worldwide attention. On Russian TV, the release was described as a "terrible release of classified information".
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